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I don't think making 3 models is the problem. You can buy a  pro or premium anytime within reason. Where the issue is, people are so impatient and can't wait. So they pay more for s/hand games that are available now. I could have purchased  s/hamd jp premium for $12800 or buy a nib for $12250 and wait. Unfortunately for this silly hobby I'm the type of guy whose happy to wait. And before you say but you still contributed to the silly prices by purchasing at a silly price,  I didn't. I sold a s/hand game for an absolute mental price that covered this purchase and then some. Otherwise I'd never buy a nib. And I'll definitely never buy a s/hand game in this market. 

Edited by pinball god
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12 hours ago, OurManinOz said:

I think we'll know more by this time next year in what should be a fully post lockdown world and people having had more time to go back to normal with travel etc. I know the US and Europe have a had big head start there but I don't think things have totally gotten back to normal just yet. I definitely can't see this local market second hand hype, like with so many other categories affected by that as well, being sustained. Whether manufacturers will see a change will be more interesting. I guess the other factor is how many new pins come out across the next 12 months and the impact that has on demand and prices.

Completely agree.  The next 12-18 months in a post lockdown era will be interesting and we should get an idea of what direction things are heading.  Also agree on the second hand market not being sustained.  Many people seem cashed up not travelling/holidaying, not eating at restaurants, not attending shops to buy shit, not refuelling the car as often, etc......

When things open up and we get back to some form of normal, I can see the wives of many first pin owners saying, "Now I want that holiday, I want this and that, etc, so you need to sell that pinball machine you paid $20k for.  You don't play it that often anyway!"

I could be wrong but I think there will be a larger supply of used pins advertised in the coming year/s.  I've said it many times, it's all about supply and demand.  Demand appears to be very high currently and supply seems limited.  There are many people buying pinball machines for the first time who literally know nothing about them.  I think this will change in the next 12 months. 

I know a guy that paid a very high price for 90's machine, only to be shocked when he learnt of the cost involved to get a tech over to fix a problem.  He told me it cost more to service and fix his pinball machine than a major service on his car!  I stressed the importance of learning about them and rectifying minor issues himself.  I'm tipping his machine will be on the market in the near future.

But, time will tell gentlemen, time will tell..........    

 

   

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8 hours ago, pinball god said:

I don't think making 3 models is the problem. You can buy a  pro or premium anytime within reason. Where the issue is, people are so impatient and can't wait. So they pay more for s/hand games that are available now. I could have purchased  s/hamd jp premium for $12800 or buy a nib for $12250 and wait. Unfortunately for this silly hobby I'm the type of guy whose happy to wait. And before you say but you still contributed to the silly prices by purchasing at a silly price,  I didn't. I sold a s/hand game for an absolute mental price that covered this purchase and then some. Otherwise I'd never buy a nib. And I'll definitely never buy a s/hand game in this market. 

Fair call. 
 

I picked up a beautiful JP prem today for less than those costs with mods and  shaker. So I guess patience does pay off. 
 

Edited by radirgyman
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10 hours ago, Glenn70 said:

Completely agree.  The next 12-18 months in a post lockdown era will be interesting and we should get an idea of what direction things are heading.  Also agree on the second hand market not being sustained.  Many people seem cashed up not travelling/holidaying, not eating at restaurants, not attending shops to buy shit, not refuelling the car as often, etc......

When things open up and we get back to some form of normal, I can see the wives of many first pin owners saying, "Now I want that holiday, I want this and that, etc, so you need to sell that pinball machine you paid $20k for.  You don't play it that often anyway!"

I could be wrong but I think there will be a larger supply of used pins advertised in the coming year/s.  I've said it many times, it's all about supply and demand.  Demand appears to be very high currently and supply seems limited.  There are many people buying pinball machines for the first time who literally know nothing about them.  I think this will change in the next 12 months. 

I know a guy that paid a very high price for 90's machine, only to be shocked when he learnt of the cost involved to get a tech over to fix a problem.  He told me it cost more to service and fix his pinball machine than a major service on his car!  I stressed the importance of learning about them and rectifying minor issues himself.  I'm tipping his machine will be on the market in the near future.

But, time will tell gentlemen, time will tell..........   

 

   Yeah we're very much on the same page. I can imagine when many start wanting to travel again and spend what's left of their spare cash on that instead of toys to distract. Then there's the longer term implications of those affected by various lockdown business crisis' who suddenly won't be able to justify having money tied up. The NFI about repairs and maintenance is  the factor I love to bring up on the local FB groups, like hey what are you going to do when something goes wrong with the restored 90's title you paid a mint for. I was astounded when I came across a bloke who had bought a few machines and lived way out in the country and now sure enough needs stuff fixed. I suggested he's up for a quite a hard time if he never learns to maintain his pins himself living so far from anywhere, let alone the expense of having someone else do it. Quite astoundingly he expressed that he wasn't phased by the option of hauling his pins 550km or more round trip to Jose in Canberra (as recommended by the FB randoms) and pay whatever he wants to charge 🙄. That story of your mate I feel we'll definitely see echoed across the place. This 'plug and play' / disposable society we've got won't take too well to it I'd say. Sounds really sustainable long term doesn't it.

Indeed let's sit back and see how it all unfolds. Meanwhile Stern, crank out those Godzillas and get them on the boat to us 🙂 

Edited by OurManinOz
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15 hours ago, Glenn70 said:

I know a guy that paid a very high price for 90's machine, only to be shocked when he learnt of the cost involved to get a tech over to fix a problem.  He told me it cost more to service and fix his pinball machine than a major service on his car!  I stressed the importance of learning about them and rectifying minor issues himself.  I'm tipping his machine will be on the market in the near future.

But, time will tell gentlemen, time will tell..........    

 

   

I deal with this every week where people have bought machines from Lloyds that have minimal work done to boot it out the door to auction. The cost to get these machines up to the level you'd expect for the price is high. It takes a full day just to strip, clean, LED and rubber then there's circuit board repair and tweaking. A lot of AAers would be aware of the time it takes to do the job properly. Even more surprising is these people don't care about the cost to repair/refurb/restore.

There's 2 camps in this hobby, those of us who love tinkering and those who have the cash to pay somebody else to do it.

 

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On 29/09/2021 at 12:18 PM, Arcade King said:

I deal with this every week where people have bought machines from Lloyds that have minimal work done to boot it out the door to auction. The cost to get these machines up to the level you'd expect for the price is high. It takes a full day just to strip, clean, LED and rubber then there's circuit board repair and tweaking. A lot of AAers would be aware of the time it takes to do the job properly. Even more surprising is these people don't care about the cost to repair/refurb/restore.

There's 2 camps in this hobby, those of us who love tinkering and those who have the cash to pay somebody else to do it.

 

it's a whole new world now days, 10 years ago when i joined this forum i said pinballs will cost over 10k and ppl laughed 

look at us today, i know of a buyer offered  400k + for a 15 pin collection and the seller knocked it back 

money means very little to some ppl  and they want what they want 

Edited by Lou
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35 minutes ago, Lou said:

it's a whole new world now days, 10 years ago when i joined this forum i said pinballs will cost over 10k and ppl laughed 

look at us today, i know of a buyer offered  400k + for a 15 pin collection and the seller knocked it back 

money means very little to some ppl  and they want what they want 

Unfortunately this story isn't a good thing for the hobby. The more people who get into the hobby with "money". The worse the hobby will get. 

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37 minutes ago, micky said:

Unfortunately this story isn't a good thing for the hobby. The more people who get into the hobby with "money". The worse the hobby will get. 

i think it's past that long time ago, stern and jjp made sure of that, a LE used to cost 1500 more then the pro 

take tron LE for a instance . at the time only 10 in the country thaty cost 7500 new ,the game becomes popular and the price starts to go up and up , now it's at 25k , now a new LE is 15k and i just got told llp put the price on pins up 1000 US more so now a jjp LE is 11k USD from 9k USD for gunners 

 

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51 minutes ago, Lou said:

i think it's past that long time ago, stern and jjp made sure of that, a LE used to cost 1500 more then the pro 

take tron LE for a instance . at the time only 10 in the country thaty cost 7500 new ,the game becomes popular and the price starts to go up and up , now it's at 25k , now a new LE is 15k and i just got told llp put the price on pins up 1000 US more so now a jjp LE is 11k USD from 9k USD for gunners 

 

Pretty sure all stern premiums are now going to be $13,250 

I shouldn’t have sold my BIBLE for rrp cost to your mate Lou! 🤣

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12 hours ago, micky said:

Unfortunately this story isn't a good thing for the hobby. The more people who get into the hobby with "money". The worse the hobby will get. 

These people won't stick around I promise. I know plenty who with serious money who buy cars, own crazy houses, etc (heck I do too and could be like this myself if I didn't have all the years of experience in pinball) and only one has 2 older 80's titles and an antique 50's one, none of the rest are interested. Our market doesn't have enough of these types of buyers to sustain this kind of 'pinflation'. The US has more than enough people who have suddenly through covid 'found' the pinball to probably keep things going up for a while. At these prices it definitely supports going back to importing machines yourself!

Edited by OurManinOz
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Yikes those prices.

Struggled to get 12.,5 for my METLE a few years ago, however other markets are up too in the time of cheap $

Cars and certain property markets, like Mornington peninsula property have doubled in <4 years too

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2 hours ago, peely said:

Yikes those prices.

Struggled to get 12.,5 for my METLE a few years ago, however other markets are up too in the time of cheap $

Cars and certain property markets, like Mornington peninsula property have doubled in <4 years too

Yeah I remember that MetLE you had.

I got offered crazy cash for mine. I declined. I don't buy stuff to flip. I generally always offer it back to the seller for the same price when I'm done with the machine. If they don't want it I then on sell. (Hasn't always been the case)

I bought a Tron LE and Star Trek off a guy in SA and offered them back to him for same price. He didn't want them.

I then got a remarkable offer for Tron LE and accepted it as having owned it twice was enough. Plus I needed the $ for house Reno's.

I got bored of it quick the second time around. 

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1 hour ago, radirgyman said:

Yeah I remember that MetLE you had.

I got offered crazy cash for mine. I declined. I don't buy stuff to flip. I generally always offer it back to the seller for the same price when I'm done with the machine. If they don't want it I then on sell. (Hasn't always been the case)

I bought a Tron LE and Star Trek off a guy in SA and offered them back to him for same price. He didn't want them.

I then got a remarkable offer for Tron LE and accepted it as having owned it twice was enough. Plus I needed the $ for house Reno's.

I got bored of it quick the second time around. 

Yeah I don't buy to flip, just get bored with them after I've played them relentlessly and want to move onto the next as there's plenty I haven't owned.  The problem is with that approach, you miss big updates and significant changes to the code. MET is one I missed out on as is IM. Would have put 2k games on that when I owned it pre 1.01 release. Those are two I would like to own again. I'm certainly not a collector.. 😉

Yeah Tron.. Congo is better

 

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On 28/09/2021 at 9:08 PM, pinball god said:

I don't think making 3 models is the problem. You can buy a  pro or premium anytime within reason. Where the issue is, people are so impatient and can't wait. So they pay more for s/hand games that are available now. I could have purchased  s/hamd jp premium for $12800 or buy a nib for $12250 and wait. Unfortunately for this silly hobby I'm the type of guy whose happy to wait. And before you say but you still contributed to the silly prices by purchasing at a silly price,  I didn't. I sold a s/hand game for an absolute mental price that covered this purchase and then some. Otherwise I'd never buy a nib. And I'll definitely never buy a s/hand game in this market. 

You could also take that view into houses. I bought my house 12 years ago for half of what it’s valued for now. I’m being priced out of the Wollongong market where I’d like to live. But I bought my house years ago when I thought that was a tonne of money! Even a year ago you could’ve bought further north in Wollongong for the same price as now is getting to the southern parts. Yeah prices are crazy, fomo and some good games with impatient people waiting in the wings. There’s not much out the at the moment either and I’d much prefer to have a game now for a little bit more than wait for 3-6 months to get it 

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13 hours ago, Audioenslaved said:

You could also take that view into houses. I bought my house 12 years ago for half of what it’s valued for now. I’m being priced out of the Wollongong market where I’d like to live. But I bought my house years ago when I thought that was a tonne of money! Even a year ago you could’ve bought further north in Wollongong for the same price as now is getting to the southern parts. Yeah prices are crazy, fomo and some good games with impatient people waiting in the wings. There’s not much out the at the moment either and I’d much prefer to have a game now for a little bit more than wait for 3-6 months to get it 

Fair enough. But when it comes to nib I prefer the warranty, Unboxing experience etc. So waiting is worth it to me. 

Edited by pinball god
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13 hours ago, Audioenslaved said:

There’s not much out the at the moment either and I’d much prefer to have a game now for a little bit more than wait for 3-6 months to get it 

Yeah that’s fair enough too. 

I was happy to wait till next years shipment for JP as I didn’t really want to go over rrp unless I absolutely had too. 

And now next years shipment is all sold out! 
 

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17 hours ago, Audioenslaved said:

You could also take that view into houses. I bought my house 12 years ago for half of what it’s valued for now. I’m being priced out of the Wollongong market where I’d like to live. But I bought my house years ago when I thought that was a tonne of money! Even a year ago you could’ve bought further north in Wollongong for the same price as now is getting to the southern parts. Yeah prices are crazy, fomo and some good games with impatient people waiting in the wings. There’s not much out the at the moment either and I’d much prefer to have a game now for a little bit more than wait for 3-6 months to get it 

Yeah the Wollongong market has been going up steadily for last 5 years and had a big kick in the last 12 months like quite a few others. The further northern subs have never been particular cheap compared to areas like Shellharbour. Places like Bellambi just north, that have always been considered pretty 'houso' and accordingly valued have now jumped massively in the last 12 months. My suburb was recorded as having the biggest growth in the state, above Byron. There's absolute rubbish 'dogbox' townhouses down the road in and amongst the back streets of Thirroul that have sold for 2mil each recently, which is just completely absurd by any measure for what they are! This sort of stuff definitely has to experience a correction at some point. I mean you could live like a king in the south of France for $2M or less, it's sickening. The other factor in all this is mortgage stress, watch that soon take affect, something has to give in the housing affordability vs income vs borrowing stakes. That's got to flow on to a portion of the pinball market that's more aspiring and that say have a game, maybe two. What's going to be sold when the crunch comes I wonder. I really feel this fomo factor is a direct result of covid and lockdowns, it just adds into the many other categories that have gone mad under the same circumstances. Me too though, last thing I need to do is be impatient and pay overs when I've got more than enough machines to play meantime while waiting for new ones like GZ or Fathom.

Edited by OurManinOz
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Covid has played a part but this price thing has been going on for years now. I believe the housing market is more the contributor. In my day I'd pay more off my house and gain equity. Now people have a shit and their equity has risen $10k. Paper millionaires. So as their equity, through uncontrolled circumstances increase, they redraw and buy pins. If there's a correction I fear we all will bear the cost. Now granted that's my cynical view on the market but I think there's some truth in it. 

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1 hour ago, pinball god said:

Covid has played a part but this price thing has been going on for years now. I believe the housing market is more the contributor. In my day I'd pay more off my house and gain equity. Now people have a shit and their equity has risen $10k. Paper millionaires. So as their equity, through uncontrolled circumstances increase, they redraw and buy pins. If there's a correction I fear we all will bear the cost. Now granted that's my cynical view on the market but I think there's some truth in it. 

That absolutely feels right to me. There would be so many people cashing in on this kind of equity to justify buying so much stuff including pins. Plus a few who've possibly cashed out of places and moved to a cheaper market (and subsequently push prices up in those markets much to the chagrin of locals) say who suddenly have a chunk of money left over. It definitely seems like we're seeing the results of those types of scenarios still. But yeah I do wonder what's ahead as it doesn't feel particularly sustainable.

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Mehh not that I can talk but this is one of the best toys that Stern have ever done.... Seems like the prem is a must.. The game play is greatly affected by the building too.

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6 hours ago, RGR said:

Mehh not that I can talk but this is one of the best toys that Stern have ever done.... Seems like the prem is a must.. The game play is greatly affected by the building too.

Yeah it’d suck not having the building moving. Definitely a cool addition to the game. I do like it’s game changing dynamic depending on what height it’s at 

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