My bet to a workmate over the future of cars

[danny_galaga]

That was a 'rider'. A test to see if you had read a really important post I made. You haven't. You are a 'yeah but' person. No matter what is said, you will respond with 'yeah but'.

Peely, we should do a side bet on whether I'm being trolled by Candy Girl. I still can't tell...

[Boots]

15 hours ago, danny_galaga said:

That is a valid point. Are we jumping out of the kettle and into the fire? The thing is, there really isn't much choice. Even now, life is becoming much more expensive because of the environmental impacts of climate change. Just ask those in the recently flooded areas in NSW who can't get insurance for their properties anymore.

On that note, how have you faired? And Hank? I hear there are plans to move your whole town to higher ground 😲

Weren’t those areas always flood plains?

SA is a lot more restrictive where homes can be built these days not so much NSW. 
Can’t actually believe that in 2022 after a long history of known flood patterns we havent created a solution.  

[danny_galaga]

Similar problems in South East Queensland. The problem is, as storms become heavier/more frequent, flooding potential goes up. It's just one of many things that climate change does that doesn't sit well with modern civilization. If we were stone age nomads, it wouldn't matter so much.

More EV news 

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/mazda-coupe-concept-accompanies-16-billion-ev-announcement

 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by danny_galaga

[oldhank]

3 hours ago, danny_galaga said:

Similar problems in South East Queensland. The problem is, as storms become heavier/more frequent, flooding potential goes up. It's just one of many things that climate change does that doesn't sit well with modern civilization. If we were stone age nomads, it wouldn't matter so much.

More EV news 

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/mazda-coupe-concept-accompanies-16-billion-ev-announcement

 

 

Don't forget lismore nsw lol

[danny_galaga]

22 minutes ago, oldhank said:

Don't forget lismore nsw lol

Certainly haven't! I mentioned on the previous page I'd read there are plans to move the whole town!?! 

Please keep your lovely new car high and dry 🏁

And you too of course 🙂

Edited November 23, 2022 by danny_galaga

[oldhank]

43 minutes ago, danny_galaga said:

Certainly haven't! I mentioned on the previous page I'd read there are plans to move the whole town!?! 

Please keep your lovely new car high and dry 🏁

And you too of course 🙂

That's not my new car I sold it years ago lol

[Autosteve]

10 hours ago, danny_galaga said:

Candyland is what is described as a 'yeah but' personality-

Well possibly but if you think about it, you are actually a far more extreme example of this only it is of the opposing view.....

Yer but we will all die.

Yer but we are all going to flood

Yer but it won't ever rain again

Yer but what about our kids

.............unless we all do exactly like I say and believe.

See, no real difference is there?.

All that aside, I actually have a celebration I want you Danny to celebrate with me mate. 

It has just come to my attention that my family and I are all carbon neutral right now.

I figure if large companies like QANTAS can buy up chunks of land around the world as carbon soaks to deem there activities carbon neutral, ( UN Carbon Trading Scheme), surely I can soak all my and my families carbon excesses using my farm as my carbon soak?.

All sounds quite plausible to me. Actually, with over 6,000 trees, I'm probably soaking half the forums members carbon as well as you Danny so with this new found wealth of carbon neutrality I have just granted you, how are we going to celebrate?.

 

 

[danny_galaga]

Let me use this example.

 

I contend that the world is flat. I use lots of examples to prove it.

In opposition, you contend that the world is round and use lots of examples to prove it. 

There are two positions at play. Can you see though that even though there are only two positions (the earth is flat Vs the earth is round) the 'weighting' is not 50/50. In this case in fact the weighting is 100/00. 

If we both persisted in that argument, are we both 'yeah but' types? No, only I would be that type of person. You would simply just be right. I could accuse you of arrogance, or being a 'yeah but' type but in the end only one of us is right.

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by danny_galaga

[Autosteve]

1 hour ago, oldhank said:

Don't forget lismore nsw lol

Lismore is one of those towns I remember as a boy flooding and after every flood event, the town was going to relocate just like hundreds of other Australian country towns have had to do because of flooding since colonization.

I noticed today our CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology released a story of pending doom unless we change regarding climate change.

That would be the same Bureau of Meteorology that just spent $70,000,000 trying to change there name they wanted 3 years ago.....BOM....to the Bureau Of Weather and Climate?.

It would also be the same BOM that did not see a triple La Nina event coming to Australia 2 years ago.

Not like it never happens, last triple to hit Australia was in 1953 but no, our Bureau Of Meteorology with all there budget missed it clean. 

"It may be a moderate La Nina event", where there exact words they used back in 2019. It was right before the bushfires hit and I was personally hopeing for a big impact of the rain.

Shame both the CSIRO and the BOM don't just do what they used to do very well but not these days.

To busy trying to convince the un-conceivable about a hypothetical only there modelling can see.

Just go back to the job you are all employed by the tax payer to do.

 

[danny_galaga]

Yeah but...

[Zzap]

12 minutes ago, Autosteve said:

Lismore is one of those towns I remember as a boy flooding and after every flood event, the town was going to relocate just like hundreds of other Australian country towns have had to do because of flooding since colonization.

I noticed today our CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology released a story of pending doom unless we change regarding climate change.

That would be the same Bureau of Meteorology that just spent $70,000,000 trying to change there name they wanted 3 years ago.....BOM....to the Bureau Of Weather and Climate?.

It would also be the same BOM that did not see a triple La Nina event coming to Australia 2 years ago.

Not like it never happens, last triple to hit Australia was in 1953 but no, our Bureau Of Meteorology with all there budget missed it clean. 

"It may be a moderate La Nina event", where there exact words they used back in 2019. It was right before the bushfires hit and I was personally hopeing for a big impact of the rain.

Shame both the CSIRO and the BOM don't just do what they used to do very well but not these days.

To busy trying to convince the un-conceivable about a hypothetical only there modelling can see.

Just go back to the job you are all employed by the tax payer to do.

 

Do you have a better model they should be using? I'm sure if you were to write it up and have it peer reviewed in a meteorological journal they would be more than happy to take it on board.

You do realise the immense complexity of the systems involved here? It's not rocket science - it's much more complex.

[Zzap]

This shows a bit of the complexity

See all of those light grey lines, without knowing all the detail, they would be a wide range of simulations of various events that would happen to lead to that sea temperature change. It's not certain, any of those grey lines could happen. And no they can't know for sure that La Nina will be finishing (see, some of them drop down - but then then there's the interplay with the Pacific Dipole etc etc). I think you're looking for certainty, where things aren't as black and white as that. And no they can't say for sure, but they can say 'odds are', and they will more than likely be right. But they might not be right. And then you'll say 'a ha! see those fools aren't right', when really they were just trying to make it more understandable and left off the details of margins of error and uncertainty - because people aren't good at interpreting it.

So yeah, BoM definitely aren't going to get it right 100% of the time, but they definitely aren't going to get it wrong 100% of the time! And based on all the research and science, they are getting a lot better at understanding when they are wrong, and the likelihood they are wrong.

And based on that, they can still say with confidence that shit's not looking great with the climate, because based on all of the different likely scenarios, the climate's heading in a bad direction.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Zzap

[Zzap]

@Autosteve Which particular part of these climate models do you have issue with that are used in forecasting La Nina?

http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/ahead/about/model/access.shtml

https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/long-range/

https://weather.gc.ca/saisons/howto_seasonal_coupled_e.html

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/outline/cps2_description.html

http://www.umr-cnrm.fr/IMG/pdf/system7-technical.pdf

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/user-guide/global-seasonal-forecasting-system-glosea6

 

[Autosteve]

No, I'm not that into it to start opening all those links sorry.

My understanding would be temperatures compiled from 1000s of weather stations in the ocean much like we have to predict tsunamis telling of colder or hotter oceans, look which why the ocean currents are going and that gives you a fair idea what will happen in the future exactly the same as weather predictions are done over the land only it is water currents and not prevailing winds .

You can throw all that data into a multitude of computers if you wish and use what ever modelling you want but at the end of the day, that is how the raw data is compiled.

[danny_galaga]

1 hour ago, Autosteve said:

No, I'm not that into it to start opening all those links sorry.

My understanding would be temperatures compiled from 1000s of weather stations in the ocean much like we have to predict tsunamis telling of colder or hotter oceans, look which why the ocean currents are going and that gives you a fair idea what will happen in the future exactly the same as weather predictions are done over the land only it is water currents and not prevailing winds .

You can throw all that data into a multitude of computers if you wish and use what ever modelling you want but at the end of the day, that is how the raw data is compiled.

Sounds like you have it all worked out. You should let BOM know so they can learn from your insights...

Looks like quite a range of EVs are coming down under next year 😲

 

https://www.whichcar.com.au/news/electric-vehicles-coming-to-australia-november-update#solterra

[Autosteve]

Quite a few models there all fighting for that 2% of the market EVs represent in Australia ATM.

How many sales you think some of those models will only ever sell, 10, 20?

I think I would prefer tracking down parts for a model T Ford. Can still actually get some believe it or not.

Had a mate that bought a baby Landrover. Turns out it was made in Poland. Some fools tried knocking it off and rolled it backwards down his driveway and bent the passenger door backwards on a pole.

You know they wrote that car off because the insurance company could only get the bare door but couldn't get a replacement door trim or a outside door mirror to suit a right hand drive vehicle.

Irony was you could go into a dealership and buy that same car new the day the insurance company paid him out.

Rule number one....never buy an unpopular vehicle.

[CandyLand]

19 hours ago, danny_galaga said:

 

Peely, we should do a side bet on whether I'm being trolled by Candy Girl. I still can't tell...

Peely, I would consider trolling him right up there with kissing the butt hole of a dog ...Not so sure I would take that bet.

Edited November 23, 2022 by CandyLand

[oldhank]

20 minutes ago, CandyLand said:

Peely, I would consider trolling him right up there with kissing the butt hole of a dog ...Not so sure I would take that bet.

Not a fan of cats?

[CandyLand]

Lol, That cat looks a bit concerned at the prospect...(Giggle)

[danny_galaga]

4 minutes ago, oldhank said:

Not a fan of cats?

I'm a massive fan.

GO CATS!

[oldhank]

4 minutes ago, CandyLand said:

Lol, That cat looks a bit concerned at the prospect...(Giggle)

That one is little puss 

[oldhank]

the other one is bundy 

[CandyLand]

It seems curious they are on their spot, all proper cozy on their half of the blanket, They look like good cats...My cat is weird and mean, sometimes he sets a trap for me and randomly attacks, Thinking he may have some brain damage or something.

[oldhank]

48 minutes ago, CandyLand said:

It seems curious they are on their spot, all proper cozy on their half of the blanket, They look like good cats...My cat is weird and mean, sometimes he sets a trap for me and randomly attacks, Thinking he may have some brain damage or something.

They are very good cats

[DAG]

28 minutes ago, oldhank said:

They are very good cats

Better than their master???