OurManinOz

I hear you there. I even lost money offloading my Cactus Canyon in 2010. Had to even discount my 3 month old Dialed In as I recall. Took my stance against 'Pinflation' when I recently sold DP LE. I just asked for what it owed me with the add-ons.

Yeah I reckon it depends quite a lot on the demographic. I came across just such a person who's kept in touch with me since wanting to buy my DP LE. He came into pinball in June, to which I had a laugh and pointed out he was yet another one of the Lockdown come lately pinball buyers. He definitely is one who's in the new found hobby category and definitely sounds like he's not worried to spend up to very quickly build a collection up and as he demonstrated in talking to me, pay overs. I said to him, mate it totally freaks me out when I contemplate what it would cost to repurchase just half of what I've got right now😱. I think there's a sub category of people though who were lockdown bored and maybe had holiday money sat aside, or decided to blow some stimulus money, who may start to find they can no longer justify the one machine they paid a stack for in Covid. That scenario would have to account for a fair few purchases over this time surely. The scenario of people of who have the spare funds to drop big $$ to buy up a bunch of titles surely can't represent that much of the population here in Aus. Over in the US with their population, for sure, just need a percentage more people coming into pinball and suddenly things are going nuts.

Yeah that would be the main factor if not many actually coming here. I'd thought it was popular, talking about the premiums of course, know we hardly got any allocation of LE's. Little doubt this scenario is likely in the US though. Depends on title though, do you really want RUSH that badly in the case of next release 😆

Yeah I still think there's a element of unsustainablity in our little market, perhaps not so much in the massive breadth and potential of the US market -but then again they haven't had such a ridiculous wholesale blind inflation scenario affecting the whole market as badly as we have. I can still see plenty room for scenarios as well where people have pressures to not have a $15k toy sitting in the corner when their families start wanting to go on vacations. Is it going to be so popular now to find they've spent money on a pinball they're not really into after lockdown since the world has opened up. Then I do contemplate what happens generally when all of the stimulus efforts have worn off and how the economy will be by say mid next year. I can also see for the noobs who've come in and get bored, machines over time popping up that are in poor condition due to lack of maintenance and just sitting around. That pinball museum in stuff was classic case of exposing pinball to a whole fresh population of people with NFI and no concept of the market or general concern for values. It's what we see here with all the idiots who get completely sucked in by Lloyd's Auctions bs.

Hotly sought after doesn't necessarily translate to anything other than fact Stern picked a hugely popular theme and lots of people bought it. A lot of them would have bought on theme alone, not Steve Ritchies design vs Keith Elwin's design in AIQ. Theme can definitely end up being an overriding factor these days no doubt. SW is certainly a good example there. Wasn't always the case though but I blame fact we have such an influx of newcomers who just don't know pinball the way a lot us do in terms of how we look at games ie gameplay, design and depth of code. The irony of course is hearing people in the US pronouncing Godzilla as Elwin's best title yet when they've played it.

I'd imagine giving the production timing the LEs would certainly be in this shipment if it contains premiums. I'm looking forward to hearing the Godzilla LEs are on the water, not excited about the wait though as per what we've seen with Mando. Definitely can say I've no longer got any regrets missing out on Mando LE from what I've now seen of Godzilla 😁

That absolutely feels right to me. There would be so many people cashing in on this kind of equity to justify buying so much stuff including pins. Plus a few who've possibly cashed out of places and moved to a cheaper market (and subsequently push prices up in those markets much to the chagrin of locals) say who suddenly have a chunk of money left over. It definitely seems like we're seeing the results of those types of scenarios still. But yeah I do wonder what's ahead as it doesn't feel particularly sustainable.

Yeah the Wollongong market has been going up steadily for last 5 years and had a big kick in the last 12 months like quite a few others. The further northern subs have never been particular cheap compared to areas like Shellharbour. Places like Bellambi just north, that have always been considered pretty 'houso' and accordingly valued have now jumped massively in the last 12 months. My suburb was recorded as having the biggest growth in the state, above Byron. There's absolute rubbish 'dogbox' townhouses down the road in and amongst the back streets of Thirroul that have sold for 2mil each recently, which is just completely absurd by any measure for what they are! This sort of stuff definitely has to experience a correction at some point. I mean you could live like a king in the south of France for $2M or less, it's sickening. The other factor in all this is mortgage stress, watch that soon take affect, something has to give in the housing affordability vs income vs borrowing stakes. That's got to flow on to a portion of the pinball market that's more aspiring and that say have a game, maybe two. What's going to be sold when the crunch comes I wonder. I really feel this fomo factor is a direct result of covid and lockdowns, it just adds into the many other categories that have gone mad under the same circumstances. Me too though, last thing I need to do is be impatient and pay overs when I've got more than enough machines to play meantime while waiting for new ones like GZ or Fathom.

These people won't stick around I promise. I know plenty who with serious money who buy cars, own crazy houses, etc (heck I do too and could be like this myself if I didn't have all the years of experience in pinball) and only one has 2 older 80's titles and an antique 50's one, none of the rest are interested. Our market doesn't have enough of these types of buyers to sustain this kind of 'pinflation'. The US has more than enough people who have suddenly through covid 'found' the pinball to probably keep things going up for a while. At these prices it definitely supports going back to importing machines yourself!

Yeah we're very much on the same page. I can imagine when many start wanting to travel again and spend what's left of their spare cash on that instead of toys to distract. Then there's the longer term implications of those affected by various lockdown business crisis' who suddenly won't be able to justify having money tied up. The NFI about repairs and maintenance is the factor I love to bring up on the local FB groups, like hey what are you going to do when something goes wrong with the restored 90's title you paid a mint for. I was astounded when I came across a bloke who had bought a few machines and lived way out in the country and now sure enough needs stuff fixed. I suggested he's up for a quite a hard time if he never learns to maintain his pins himself living so far from anywhere, let alone the expense of having someone else do it. Quite astoundingly he expressed that he wasn't phased by the option of hauling his pins 550km or more round trip to Jose in Canberra (as recommended by the FB randoms) and pay whatever he wants to charge 🙄. That story of your mate I feel we'll definitely see echoed across the place. This 'plug and play' / disposable society we've got won't take too well to it I'd say. Sounds really sustainable long term doesn't it. Indeed let's sit back and see how it all unfolds. Meanwhile Stern, crank out those Godzillas and get them on the boat to us 🙂

I think we'll know more by this time next year in what should be a fully post lockdown world and people having had more time to go back to normal with travel etc. I know the US and Europe have a had big head start there but I don't think things have totally gotten back to normal just yet. I definitely can't see this local market second hand hype, like with so many other categories affected by that as well, being sustained. Whether manufacturers will see a change will be more interesting. I guess the other factor is how many new pins come out across the next 12 months and the impact that has on demand and prices.

Good to know. Glad I'm not alone here. Was starting to question myself there a bit lol. I'll put it down to the current pin market FOMO.

Yeah I'm still scratching my head at the amount of fervor the sale generated. It wasn't really to hard a choice when I thought about how little I play it nowadays, despite never really getting that far into it. Best score was like 475m. Bring on Godzilla 🙂

It's definitely gone up in last couple of years as it wasn't this high with BKSOR LE which was my last LE.

Yes indeed. Was still only 80% on letting DP go instead of BKSOR. I had a game on each this arvo and clocked a top score on BKSOR that reinspired me and gave me answer. Went straight up and listed DP.