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My bet to a workmate over the future of cars

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  • My bet to a workmate over the future of cars

    I posted it on FB so it's locked in


    A bet between me and Kahn. I figure by the time this bet expires in ten years one or both of us will have left Post so then we'll be Facebook friends ๐Ÿ˜„

    The bet: I bet you one litre of petrol that by the beginning of 2031 there won't be any new internal combustion powered cars for people to buy. What IC cars are still around will probably still be allowed on the roads but will probably have a collectors club rego or be a lot more expensive to register. Therefore virtually all the cars all of us are driving now will have been recycled or there will be some sort of buy back scheme for the remainder. Only cars of exceptional interest will remain. Therefore your fully sick 2001 Holden Commodore will not make the cut, but your 1981 Lotus Esprit might. Collectors will keep interesting cars for on the track or to tinker with or show off at meetings, much like old codgers now play around with steam rollers.

    Furthermore, no one will think twice about it. The average person would no longer desire to drive a petrol powered sedan around in 2031 than they would a Stanley Steamer. But they can if they like. Besides, at $10 a litre for fuel why would you? You can't even charge it up at home!

    Provided FB survives ten years, hopefully we get reminded of this bet ๐Ÿ™‚
    Danny Galaga- the man with no signature...

  • #2
    There is a problem with this bet. 4x4 & big diesel cars will still be common place as people pull Boats, Caravans, Trailers & Horse floats. No electric car could ever replace them.

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    • #3
      Part of my reasoning is that is exactly what will happen. If it doesn't, I lose the bet. It's not an emotional issue for me. Just seems obvious to me what is going to happen. My friend sees something else as obvious and hence the bet. He has said when he wins the bet he's pouring that one litre straight into his petrol car and doing donuts in front of my house
      Danny Galaga- the man with no signature...

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      • #4
        if it was by 2040 they will be gone, I would agree
        but I will be dead by then so I dont really care

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Pop Bumper Pete View Post
          if it was by 2040 they will be gone, I would agree
          but I will be dead by then so I dont really care
          I'll be 82 then the new 50...

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          • #6
            2031.... I bet they will all be driverless too and the option for an electric fan forced hover conversion. Iโ€™m still waiting for the โ€œFlying Carโ€ be a long time now.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by danny_galaga View Post
              Provided FB survives ten years, hopefully we get reminded of this bet
              Ideally Facebook gets shut down long before the internal combustion engine becomes obsolete.
              WAR IS PEACE
              FREEDOM IS SLAVERY
              STAYING APART KEEPS US TOGETHER

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              • #8
                Great topic and a great idea to bet on!
                My guess is 70% petrol/diesel 30% electric /hydrogen. I drove a Tesla the other day. It was very powerful being direct DC shunt motors (like a battery drill) but range is an issue for Aussies. And the price of electricity doesn't make them very economical in SA. Not to mention the disposal cost of lithium. But I think Tesla has some buy back deal for old batteries.
                Hydrogen electric fuel cell or retrofitting an iC car to take hyrogen makes more sense. You don't have to dig hydrogen out of the ground in China. And hydrogen is abundant everywhere. But you do need to refrigerate it to some crazy temperature to ensure it is a liquid and is not flammable.
                There are many plants including the yukka plant which can be grown and processed to make a synthetic fuel. If petrol becomes less popular I think it's price will drop not rise.
                I will be staying with petrol. Any greenies who think electric cars are gonna save the planet just remember: coal fired plants are used to charge your green cars. And wind / solar won't charge your car enough at night no matter how many batteries you have installed.

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                • #9
                  kimbleseven 10 years ago I would have agreed with you, since then there is that battery setup in SA that Elon Musk installed, it shows that it could work
                  you can disconnect from the grid now, and power an electric car, just from panels on your roof and two batteries in your garage
                  cost is the biggest issue, and (like you said) the range of the cars
                  Robert Llewellyn has some youtube clips

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                  • #10
                    I think there is a huge market for affordable electric conversion kits for older cars
                    Would love to put one in a Delorean.
                    I would even put one in my hotrod,exposed motor steam punk style

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                    • #11
                      This thing is absolutely awesome. First saw it on Iron Resurrection. Zombie 222

                      1968 All-Electric Mustang Fastback - Zombie 222 - YouTube


                      The story of an all-electric, record-shattering '68 Mustang - YouTube
                      http://www.aussiearcade.com.au/forum.../138-RAIL-WAYS

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by kimbleseven View Post
                        Hydrogen electric fuel cell or retrofitting an iC car to take hyrogen makes more sense. You don't have to dig hydrogen out of the ground in China. And hydrogen is abundant everywhere. But you do need to refrigerate it to some crazy temperature to ensure it is a liquid and is not flammable.
                        I used to be big into the idea of hydrogen refits years ago, because any wannabe macgyver can generate it in your own home (or at least your shed, but with a few precautions it's significantly less-unsafe than a meth lab) with basically zero precursor chemicals and next to no equipment, albeit not at fuel-grade (you can power ICEs with it, just not "commercial hydrogen vehicles" without special equipment). The problem you're missing there is hydrogen embrittlement, which was last time I looked still an unsolved problem and I haven't heard anything in the news about someone solving it. The storage issues have been solved for 20 years now, but hydrogen still destroys ICEs eventually.

                        Fuel cell vehicles are a bit of a mystery to me, but I'm under the impression a hydrogen fuel cell vehicle is still an EV - hydrogen fuel cells are an electrical storage mechanism rather than a motor? Regardless, it'd take a miracle for hydrogen fuel cells to win out at this point - there's basically no infrastructure for it, yet you can charge a PIEV at home overnight and there's EV superchargers even in many rural places, and it's only going to get more pervasive over the next five years. A hydrogen fuel cell vehicle would have to basically be hitting the market (as in available for John Q Public to purchase retail) right now to have any hope of it catching up, outside of massive government intervention, IMHO. It'd take much less government intervention to subsidize putting superchargers in a few problem areas to solve the range issue.

                        There are many plants including the yukka plant which can be grown and processed to make a synthetic fuel. If petrol becomes less popular I think it's price will drop not rise.
                        I will be staying with petrol.
                        Here you're forgetting two things: the economy of scale, and the costs of the environmental damage that fossil fuels create... which if we have any hope at all of surviving it are going to be converted into taxes, and as the popularity of petrol goes down the negative opinion of increasing taxes on it goes with it, so expect the government to tax the hell out of it as its popularity wanes. There's absolutely no future where petrol is unpopular and cheap in a country like Australia. I say this as a guy who will probably be driving ICEs until he's too old to drive (and then if my relos are anything to go by, a few years after that), expect prices in the $10/litre adjusted for inflation (ie roughly ten loaves of cheap bread per litre) if we get anywhere near 50% EV penetration.

                        Biofuels don't really have a future as something you buy at the pump, I think. I do suspect that a few of us will probably be distilling our own ethanol to run our "classics" at some point, in order to avoid paying that ten bucks a litre to power my fifty year old V8 VE Commodore that I am sure I steadfastly refuse to get rid of. ๐Ÿ˜‚ But pure ethanol has its own problems, not the least of which being you can drink it and the government does not like that one bit.

                        Any greenies who think electric cars are gonna save the planet just remember: coal fired plants are used to charge your green cars. And wind / solar won't charge your car enough at night no matter how many batteries you have installed.
                        Unmitigated horseshit, this last statement. Plenty of folks have rooftop solar that entirely covers the charging of their cars, and the fact that we have coal plants *now* doesn't mean we'll have coal plants forever - the "base load" argument is coal-lobby BS as well, if we build a 21st century electricity grid there's no issues there either. You'd be better off bringing up the environmental and ethical impact of mining lithium, at least there's *some* truth in those claims.

                        Edit: what *might* win out, just because our government is stupid enough to try it, is a national grid of natural gas-fired ICEs. I genuinely don't see even ScoMo's crew having the gall to try *that* though.

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by GIBO View Post
                          I think there is a huge market for affordable electric conversion kits for older cars
                          Would love to put one in a Delorean.
                          I would even put one in my hotrod,exposed motor steam punk style

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by prktkljokr View Post
                            Mmmmm ok ,was thinking more along the lines of this
                            https://chargedevs.com/newswire/ev-w...sion-projects/

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by GIBO View Post

                              Mmmmm ok ,was thinking more along the lines of this
                              https://chargedevs.com/newswire/ev-w...sion-projects/
                              Nice and shiny, wont fit in with the rat rod look, but will fit in with your clean 32

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